基于BMW和TOPSIS的新型储能场景适用性评价

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2024.0744

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前，实际投运的新型储能项目技术类型和应用场景都较为单一，未来随着新储能技术类型及场景应用逐渐扩大，有必要建立考虑多种技术类型的场景适用性评价体系，以对比各场景的成熟度和各类储能在不同场景下的综合表现。首先，分析了典型场景下为满足不同时间尺度有功功率平衡的电力系统调节需求，从功率、时长、响应时间等方面对比了不同场景对储能的技术需求；基于设定的能量型场景、功率型场景和综合场景，给出了实际中常见的典型配置方案。然后，提出一种BWM和TOPSIS相结合的储能适用性评价方法，建立了包含技术、经济性、潜力和可持续性4类11个指标的综合评价指标体系。最后，采用专家打分和BMW赋权法对三类场景赋权重，采用TOPSIS方法对11种典型配置方案进行场景适用性评价，研究结果可为规划布局新型储能技术提供指导。

关键词: 新型储能, 场景适用性评价, 最好最坏法, 优劣解距离法

Abstract:

The existing technical routes and application scenarios of new energy storage projects are relatively simple. In the future, with the gradual expansion of new energy storage technology types and scenario applications, it will be necessary to establish a scenario applicability evaluation system considering various technology types and to compare the maturity of various scenarios and the comprehensive performance of various types of energy storage in different scenarios. First, to meet the power system regulation requirements of active power balance at different time scales under typical scenarios, the technical requirements of energy storage in different scenarios were compared from the viewpoints of power, duration, and response time. Based on the set energy-based scenarios, power-based scenarios, and comprehensive scenarios, typical configuration schemes commonly used in practice were given. Second, an energy storage suitability evaluation method that combined BWM and TOPSIS was proposed. A comprehensive evaluation index system comprising 11 indicators in four categories (technology, economy, potential, and sustainability) was established. Finally, three scenarios were weighted by expert scoring and the BMW weighting method, and 11 typical configuration schemes were evaluated by the TOPSIS method. The research results provide guidance for the planning and layout of new energy storage technologies.

Key words: new energy storage, scenario applicability evaluation, best-worst method, TOPSIS method

中图分类号:

TK 02

赵娟, 李秉晨, 王喆, 岳芬, 惠子珈, 张兴. 基于BMW和TOPSIS的新型储能场景适用性评价[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2025, 14(1): 443-455.

Juan ZHAO, Bingchen LI, Zhe WANG, Fen YUE, Zijia HUI, Xing ZHANG. Evaluation of scenario applicability of new energy storage based on BMW and TOPSIS methods[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2025, 14(1): 443-455.

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趋势及挑战	惯量	一次调频	日内调峰
需求规模	随着新能源渗透率提升，对具有快速调节能力的资源需求上升；惯量响应、一次调频、二次调频在时间上相互耦合，规模上相互影响，应整体考虑三者之间的协同		随着新能源渗透率提升，规模将迅速增大，时长逐渐增加

提供主体	目前主要由传统同步机组提供，未来新能源、储能和负荷侧资源均可提供

提供方式	目前，惯量、一次调频由之前的机组义务提供转向“两个细则”下的补偿，二次调频已在部分省份实现市场化；未来各品种逐渐向市场化转变，义务提供和市场化采购并存		调峰与现货融合后，通过现货市场实现日内调峰

技术挑战	目前电力系统运行一般不考虑系统惯性需求；虚拟惯量可能造成设备有效使用寿命缩短^[28]	调频与调峰、保供电等多种调节需求叠加, 有必要建立机组分钟级与小时级耦合的建模方法；缺乏火电与新能源、储能不同类型调频资源之间调频功率优化分配的研究^[37]	现货市场申报、出清时间间隔缩小，节点数量增多，需要软件具备更强的计算能力

市场化挑战	现有标准无法准确地单独评价控制区域的一次与二次频率调节控制性能^[38]，单个主体调频贡献的评价与整个区域频率质量的评价脱节^[39]；是否采用市场化尚未有统一意见，目前未有惯量现货市场实践		现货电能量和调频、备用辅助服务之间的衔接机制

场景类型	技术需求	功率需求	时长需求	响应时间要求
惯量支撑	光伏+储能	几兆瓦~几十兆瓦	10 s内	几百毫秒内
惯量支撑	风电+储能	几兆瓦~几十兆瓦	10 s内	几百毫秒内

一次调频	火电+储能	几兆瓦~几十兆瓦	1 min内	2 s内
	风电+储能	风电装机容量的10%	1 min内	2 s内
	光伏+储能	光伏装机容量的10%	飞轮、超级电容：30秒~1分钟钛酸锂：5分钟磷酸铁锂：1小时以上	1 s内
	独立储能	几十兆瓦以上	1 h以上	1 s内

二次调频	火电+储能	几兆瓦~几十兆瓦	锂电：30 min~1 h	几秒~1 min
二次调频	独立储能	磷酸铁锂：(几十兆瓦以上) 磷酸铁锂+飞轮：(几十兆瓦以上+几兆瓦) 磷酸铁锂+超级电容：(几十兆瓦以上+几兆瓦)	锂电：1 h以上锂电(1 h)+飞轮(5~15 min内)	几秒内

调峰	火电+储能	几十兆瓦~百兆瓦级	几个小时	min级
调峰	独立储能	几十兆瓦以上	目前2~4小时为主	min级

调峰+二次调频	火电+储能	几十兆瓦~百兆瓦级	1小时以上	几秒~1 min
调峰+二次调频	独立储能	几十兆瓦以上	目前2~4小时为主	几秒内

调峰+一次调频	火电+储能	几十兆瓦~百兆瓦级	1小时以上	2 s内
调峰+一次调频	独立储能	几十兆瓦以上	目前2~4小时为主	1 s内

场景类别	典型配置方案	选用的储能技术	储能功率/MW	储能时长
能量型场景(独立储能调峰)	配置一	压缩空气	100	4 h
	配置二	磷酸铁锂	100	4 h
	配置三	全矾液流	100	4 h
	配置四	重力储能	100	4 h

功率型场景(火储调频)	配置五	磷酸铁锂	20	1 h
	配置六	磷酸铁锂+钛酸锂	15+5	1 h+20 min
	配置七	磷酸铁锂+超级电容	15+5	1 h+15 min
	配置八	磷酸铁锂+飞轮	15+5	1 h+15 min

综合场景(独立储能调峰和一次调频)	配置九	磷酸铁锂	100	2 h
	配置十	磷酸铁锂+飞轮	94+6	2 h+2 min
	配置十一	磷酸铁锂+超级电容	94+6	2 h+4 min

指标名称	指标类型	获取方式	说明
安全等级	定性指标	调研获取	需采用专家打分
发展阶段	定性指标	调研获取	需采用专家打分
放电倍率	定量指标(区间型)	调研获取	最优区间由具体场景需求决定
响应时间	定量指标(极小型)	调研获取	需转换成极大型
运行寿命	定量指标(极大型)	基于调研预估	混合储能由寿命长的技术决定项目周期
单位等年值成本	定量指标(极小型)	计算获取	需转换成极大型，调度关注
内部收益率	定量指标(极大型)	计算获取	运营方关注
预期市场占有率	定量指标(极大型)	基于调研预估	设备方、投资方关注
成本下降空间	定量指标(极大型)	基于调研预估	设备方、投资方、运营方、调度关注
关键资源制约	定性指标	调研获取	需采用专家打分
核心技术自主化	定性指标	调研获取	需采用专家打分

准则	准则权重	指标名称	分权重	综合权重	排名
技术指标	0.213	安全等级	0.267	0.057	6
		发展阶段	0.467	0.099	3
		放电倍率	0.083	0.018	10
		响应时间	0.050	0.011	11
		运行寿命	0.133	0.028	9
经济性指标	0.566	等年值成本	0.6	0.340	1
经济性指标	0.566	内部收益率	0.4	0.226	2
潜力指标	0.123	预期市场占有率	0.6	0.074	4
潜力指标	0.123	成本下降空间	0.4	0.049	7
可持续性指标	0.098	关键资源制约	0.3	0.029	8
可持续性指标	0.098	核心技术自主化	0.7	0.069	5