计及多时间尺度不确定性的电-氢一体化储能站随机-鲁棒混合规划

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2022.0726

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考虑源-荷双侧长期不确定性对电-氢一体化储能站规划结果鲁棒性的影响，提出一种计及多时间尺度不确定性的储能站容量规划方法。首先，构建电-氢混合系统结构，并设计储能站主要运行模式；其次，考虑风、光、电、氢的时序相关性，提取考虑短期不确定性的源-荷双侧的时序典型场景，以年综合成本最小为目标，建立基于多场景随机优化的储能站容量规划模型；然后，进一步考虑长期不确定性，基于信息间隙决策理论对规划模型进行改进，提出考虑长-短期不确定性的储能站随机-鲁棒混合规划方法；最后，基于某风光电场历史数据进行仿真验证，并对缺能惩罚成本系数和氢气价格等关键因素进行灵敏度分析。仿真结果表明，所提方法可合理规划电-氢一体化储能站容量，提高电-氢混合系统的风险规避能力。

关键词: 电-氢一体化储能站, 容量规划, 多时间尺度, 不确定性, 随机-鲁棒混合规划

Abstract:

Considering the impact of long-term uncertainty of supply and load on the robustness of the planning results of an electricity-hydrogen integrated energy storage station, a capacity planning method considering the uncertainty of multiple time scales is proposed. First, the structure of the hybrid electricity-hydrogen system is constructed, and the main operating modes of the energy storage station are designed. Second, taking into account the temporal correlation of wind, photovoltaic, electricity and hydrogen, the typical temporal scenarios of both source and load sides considering short-term uncertainty are extracted. Also, the capacity planning model of the energy storage station based on multi-scenario stochastic optimization is established to minimize the comprehensive annual cost. Then, further considering the long-term uncertainty, the planning model is improved based on the information gap decision theory. A stochastic robust hybrid planning method for energy storage stations is proposed considering long- and short-term uncertainties. Finally, the simulation is performed based on historical data of wind and photovoltaic power stations. Sensitivity analyses of critical factors, such as the energy shortage penalty cost coefficient and hydrogen price, are performed. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can plan reasonably the capacity of the electric-hydrogen integrated energy storage station and improve the risk aversion ability of the hybrid electric-hydrogen system.

Key words: electric-hydrogen integrated energy storage station, capacity planning, multi-timescale, uncertainty, stochastic-robust mixed planning

中图分类号:

TM 911

倪鸾, 王育飞, 薛花, 于艾清. 计及多时间尺度不确定性的电-氢一体化储能站随机-鲁棒混合规划[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2023, 12(3): 846-856.

Luan NI, Yufei WANG, Hua XUE, Aiqing YU. Hybrid stochastic-robust planning of an electricity-hydrogen integrated energy storage station considering multi-timescale uncertainty[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(3): 846-856.

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类型	高压气态储氢	低温液态储氢	固态储氢
工作温度/℃	-40～85	<-253	-40～60
寿命/a	15～20	<10	15～30
储氢密度(质量分数)/%	1～3	>10	1～18
成本/(元/kg)	4000～7000	11000～15000	8000～11000

参数	数值
固态合金储氢罐单位成本/(元/kg)	8000
电解槽单位成本/(万元/MW)	200
燃料电池单位成本/(万元/MW)	400
电解槽效率/%	60
燃料电池效率/%	65
运行维护成本系数	0.04
弃风弃光成本/(元/MWh)	360
失电惩罚成本/(元/MWh)	2000
削氢惩罚成本/(元/kg)	150

规划模型	电解槽 /MW	燃料电池 /MW	固态储氢罐 /kg	年综合成本 /万元
随机规划	34.2	32.3	3943	3737.24
随机-鲁棒规划	36.5	36.7	4100	4110.96

成本	两阶段随机优化	常规IGDT	SP-IGDT
年综合成本	3936.41	4346.77	4110.96
建设成本	24212.0	26709.6	25260.0
弃风弃光成本	114.23	51.21	55.35
失电惩罚成本	17.51	11.64	12.49
削氢惩罚成本	15.26	10.01	10.77

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