电化学储能电池技术主题识别、演化及风险分析

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2023.0188

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电化学储能电池技术作为发展潜力极大的一类储能技术，其研发态势受到全球各国关注。然而由于电化学储能电池技术本身的复杂性和广泛性，其关键技术主题、未来研发趋势及技术发展的风险水平尚未得到全面综合的科学分析。基于专利数据，宏观分析专利数据申请特征，使用LDA主题模型识别技术主题并基于后离散方法分析主题演化趋势，通过贝叶斯网络模型对热门研发领域技术发展进行风险分析。结果显示：电化学储能电池技术领域共存在15个技术主题，主题演化趋势分为上升型、平稳型和衰退型。从专利数量、产业链和电池类型3个角度进行分析，发现电化学储能电池技术全球研发呈持续增长态势，产业链上游原材料相关技术是研发的关键领域，但可能存在技术饱和现象或遭遇瓶颈，中游加工领域相关技术正逐渐成为研发热门方向。在产业链视角下对中游加工领域技术发展的风险评估为中等水平，关键风险因子有关键技术垄断、上游原材料价格上涨、行业标准滞后、产业链协作不充分。本研究将为电化学储能电池技术的发展规划及研发决策提供有益的参考。

关键词: 电化学储能电池, LDA模型, 技术主题识别, 技术主题演化, 风险分析

Abstract:

The research and development (R&D) of electrochemical energy storage battery technology has attracted worldwide attention as a promising energy storage solution. However, a comprehensive and scientific analysis of its key technology topics, future R&D trends, and risk levels has been lacking owing to the complexity and extensiveness of this field. This study aims to bridge this gap using patent data to macroscopically analyze the application characteristics, identify technical topics using the latent Dirichlet allocation topic model, analyze topic evolution based on the post-discrete method, and assess the technology development risks using the Bayesian network model. The results show that there are 15 distinct technical topics within the field of electrochemical energy storage battery technology. The evolution trend of these topics is divided into ascending, stationary, and declining types. Analyzing patent quantities, industrial chains, and battery types, the global R&D efforts in this field show a continuous growth trend. Raw material-related technologies upstream of the electrochemical energy storage battery industry chain are the key field of R&D, although saturation or bottlenecks may be encountered. Meanwhile, processing-related technologies in the midstream field are gradually becoming a hot R&D direction. Furthermore, considering the industrial chain perspective, the assessment of technological development risks in the midstream processing field indicates a medium-level risk. Key risk factors include monopolizing key technologies, rising prices of upstream raw materials, lagging industry standards, and insufficient cooperation within the industrial chain. This study provides a useful reference for developing planning and R&D decision-making processes in electrochemical energy storage battery technology.

Key words: electrochemical energy storage, LDA model, technology topic identification, technology topic evolution, risk analysis

中图分类号:

G 255.53

张力菠, 王格格. 电化学储能电池技术主题识别、演化及风险分析[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2023, 12(8): 2680-2692.

Libo ZHANG, Gege WANG. Topic identification， evolution， and risk analysis of electrochemical energy storage battery technology[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(8): 2680-2692.

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分类	主题号	主题名称	含专利数量排名
产业链上游电池原材料	Topic12	电极复合材料	2
	Topic7	电极活性物质材料	3
	Topic8	正负电极制备方法	4
	Topic11	电解液及其制备	5
	Topic13	电池隔膜及其制备	7
	Topic14	导电剂、黏结剂及其制备	15
产业链中游电池加工	Topic5	电池生产制造相关装置及设备	1
	Topic4	电池充放电相关技术及工艺	6
	Topic9	电池干燥方法	9
	Topic2	电池结构零件设计及制造	11
	Topic10	电池封装	14
产业链下游应用和回收	Topic6	电池组性能优化及应用	8
产业链下游应用和回收	Topic15	铅酸电池及其回收处理	12
特定类型电池	Topic3	氧化还原液流电池及其组件	10
	Topic15	铅酸电池及其回收处理	12
	Topic1	金属-空气电池技术	13

上升型( μ_k >1.1)		平稳型(0.9≤ μ_k ≤1.1)		衰退型( μ_k <0.9)
主题名称	μ_k	主题名称	μ_k	主题名称	μ_k
电池生产制造相关装置及设备	2.372	电池充放电相关技术及工艺	1.070	电池结构零件设计及制造	0.879
电池封装	1.407	电极复合材料	1.050	电解液及其制备	0.869
电池干燥方法	1.393	铅酸电池及其回收处理	1.019	电池隔膜及其制备	0.851
电池组性能优化及应用	1.149	正负电极制备方法	0.936	金属-空气电池技术	0.735
		氧化还原液流电池及其组件	0.929	电极活性物质材料	0.564
		导电剂、黏结剂及其制备	0.902

风险类型	风险因子	互信息值
技术风险	技术革新速度与需求不匹配	0.01460
	自动化水平低	0.00516
	关键技术垄断	0.02109
	存在安全隐患	0.00816
经济风险	商业模式不成熟	0.00751
	规模化程度低	0.01812
	上游原材料价格上涨	0.06437
政策风险	政策支持不足	0.00370
	行业标准滞后	0.02852
	监管评估机构缺失	0.02028
环境风险	产业链协作不充分	0.09684
	发生重大事故	0.00257
	国际间进出口壁垒	0.01236