“双碳”目标下抽水蓄能提升系统保供能力的技术经济性研究

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2023.0798

储能科学与技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 1059-1073.doi: 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2023.0798

“双碳”目标下抽水蓄能提升系统保供能力的技术经济性研究

赵添辰¹(), 张弓¹, 张云飞¹, 侯世豪², 王婷婷³

^1.国网新源控股有限公司抽水蓄能技术经济研究院，北京 100053
^2.北京信息科技大学，北京 100192
^3.中国电建；集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司，北京 100024

收稿日期:2023-11-07 修回日期:2023-12-18 出版日期:2024-03-28 发布日期:2024-03-28
通讯作者: 赵添辰 E-mail:1104464642@qq.com
作者简介:赵添辰（1997—），男，硕士，工程师，研究方向为抽水蓄能规划发展、电力系统分析，E-mail：1104464642@qq.com。
基金资助:
国网新源公司科技项目(SGXYKJ-2002-042)

Technical and economic research on the capacity of supply assurance for pumped-storage systems under the target of “dual carbon”

Tianchen ZHAO¹(), Gong ZHANG¹, Yunfei ZHANG¹, Shihao HOU², Tingting WANG³

^1.Pumped-storage Technological & Economic Research Institute, State Grid Xinyuan Co. Ltd. Beijing 100053, China
^2.Beijing Information Science And Technology University, Beijing 100192, China
^3.Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited, Beijing 100024, China

Received:2023-11-07 Revised:2023-12-18 Online:2024-03-28 Published:2024-03-28
Contact: Tianchen ZHAO E-mail:1104464642@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本工作通过时序仿真模拟，对抽水蓄能在典型省级电网中的保供技术经济性进行量化分析。首先，根据典型省级电网未来电力规划数据，计算得出该省级电网2025年与2030年全年电力系统运行情况，结果表明系统在全年部分时段处于供电紧平衡状态，系统备用率不足10%，充裕性和安全性面临巨大挑战。其次，选取抽水蓄能与火电机组两种灵活性调节电源，对比分析新增两种调节电源下系统供电可靠性改善情况和两种方案的量化经济性，结果表明，以2030年该省级电网模拟结果为例，配置1200万千瓦抽水蓄能和火电机组均能够将该省级电网系统全年备用率提升10%以上，解决系统备用率不足问题，提升系统保供能力。考虑系统碳排放变化所产生的环境成本，抽水蓄能改善系统供电水平的年度综合成本低于同等水平下的火电机组，同时能够对新能源消纳水平的促进和碳排放水平的降低起到积极作用。最后，比较分析了抽水蓄能与锂离子电池储能对于提升系统供电可靠性的综合经济性，结果表明抽水蓄能对于改善系统供电可靠性和充裕性等方面的综合经济性优势显著。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 抽水蓄能, 时序仿真模拟, 系统备用率, 综合经济性, 环境成本

Abstract:

This study conducts a quantitative analysis on the technical and economic feasibility of pumped storage in typical provincial power grids using time-series simulations. Initially, we base our calculations on the future power planning data of a typical provincial power grid, examining the operational status of the power system for the entire years of 2025 and 2030. The results show that during certain periods of the year, the system experiences a tight power supply balance with a backup rate of less than 10%. This poses significant challenges to its adequacy and safety. Subsequently, we select two flexible regulation power sources, namely pumped storage and thermal power units, to compare and analyze the improvement of system power supply reliability and the economic quantification under the addition of these two new regulation power sources. Our findings suggest that, using the simulation results of the provincial power grid in 2030 as an example, configuring 12 million kilowatts of pumped storage and thermal power units can increase the annual standby rate of the provincial power grid system by more than 10%. This effectively addresses the issue of an insufficient system standby rate, thereby enhancing the system's supply guarantee capacity. Considering the environmental costs arising from changes in system carbon emissions, the annual comprehensive cost of improving the system's power supply level through pumped storage is lower than that of thermal power units at the same level. Additionally, it can positively influence the consumption level of new energy and reduce carbon emissions. Ultimately, we conduct a comparative analysis on the comprehensive economic benefits of pumped storage and lithium-ion battery storage in improving system power supply reliability. The results indicate that pumped storage has significant advantages in improving system power supply reliability and adequacy in terms of comprehensive economic benefits.

Key words: dual carbon target, pumped storage, timing simulation, system reserve rate, comprehensive economy, environmental costs

中图分类号:

TM 71

赵添辰, 张弓, 张云飞, 侯世豪, 王婷婷. “双碳”目标下抽水蓄能提升系统保供能力的技术经济性研究[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2024, 13(3): 1059-1073.

Tianchen ZHAO, Gong ZHANG, Yunfei ZHANG, Shihao HOU, Tingting WANG. Technical and economic research on the capacity of supply assurance for pumped-storage systems under the target of “dual carbon”[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2024, 13(3): 1059-1073.

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年份	区内最大负荷/万千瓦	年度电量/亿千瓦时	受入电量/亿千瓦时	送出电量/亿千瓦时
2025	12430	6450	2009	0
2030	15600	7800	2269	0

年份	煤电/万千瓦	气电/万千瓦	水电/万千瓦	风电/万千瓦	光伏/万千瓦	核电/万千瓦
2025	6036	1663	701	704	3735	930
2030	6732	1963	701	1654	4735	2140

新增抽蓄容量 /万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	发电量/亿千瓦时						碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率 /%	系统备用率最低值/%
新增抽蓄容量 /万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	风电	光伏	燃煤	水电	核电	燃气	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率 /%	系统备用率最低值/%
0	0	330.6	348.6	2590.4	351.3	1445	304.2	226.4	16.2	1.9
120	3380	337.5	359.2	2589.8	354.3	1445	286.4	225.1	14.0	2.7
240	3380	343.8	368.8	2587.9	356.7	1445	273.1	224.0	12.1	3.6
360	3380	349.7	377.8	2582.6	358.8	1445	264.9	222.9	10.2	4.4
480	3380	354.9	385.6	2579.8	360.5	1445	256.9	222.0	8.6	5.3
600	3380	359.9	392.5	2573.6	361.9	1445	254.4	221.8	7.1	6.4
720	3379	364	398.5	2567.3	363.1	1445	254.1	221.4	5.9	7.1
840	3365	367.8	403.7	2560.6	364	1445	254.1	219.6	4.8	7.9
960	3352	370.9	408.1	2557.2	364.9	1445	254.1	219.0	3.8	8.7
1080	3329	373.2	411.7	2555.5	365.7	1445	254.1	218.4	3.1	9.6
1200	3297	375.3	414.5	2553.1	366.3	1445	254.1	218.0	2.5	10.4

新增火电容量/万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	发电量/亿千瓦时						碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
新增火电容量/万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	风电	光伏	燃煤	水电	核电	燃气	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
0	—	330.6	348.6	2590.4	351.3	1445	304.2	226.4	16.2	1.9
120	—	330.5	348.4	2618.7	351.1	1445	280.4	227.2	16.2	2.7
240	—	330	347.6	2642.9	351.1	1445	261.1	228.4	16.3	3.5
360	—	330.5	346.4	2657	350.9	1445	240.9	229.7	16.4	4.3
480	—	329.7	347	2695.4	350.9	1445	223.9	230.9	16.5	5.1
600	—	329.6	344.6	2698.4	350.4	1445	209.4	231.6	16.8	5.9
720	—	329.6	344.3	2705.7	350.4	1445	194	232.7	16.8	6.7
840	—	329.7	346.6	2717.8	350.8	1445	182.9	233.3	16.5	7.6
960	—	329.4	344	2739.7	350.3	1445	169.3	234.1	16.9	8.4
1080	—	329.8	344.4	2757.2	350.3	1445	161.6	234.9	16.8	9.2
1200	—	328.1	341	2770.5	349.8	1445	153.5	235.3	16.4	10.1

技术类型	单位投资成本/(元/千瓦)	电站运营周期/年
火电调峰机组	3986	30
抽水蓄能	5500	30

“双碳”目标下抽水蓄能提升系统保供能力的技术经济性研究

Technical and economic research on the capacity of supply assurance for pumped-storage systems under the target of “dual carbon”

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新增新型储能容量 /万千瓦	发电量/亿千瓦时						碳排放量 /百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
新增新型储能容量 /万千瓦	风电	光伏	燃煤	水电	核电	燃气	碳排放量 /百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
0	330.6	348.6	2590.4	351.3	1445	304.2	226.4	16.2	1.9
120	336.2	356.2	2589.9	352.7	1445	282.5	225.4	15.1	2.7
240	342.8	362.8	2588.9	354.5	1445	275.6	224.6	12.6	3.6
360	347.9	377.4	2585.6	356.1	1445	262.3	223.5	11.2	4.4
480	351.9	385.1	2580.8	358.4	1445	258.9	222.9	8.9	5.3
600	356.6	392.2	2576.6	360.3	1445	255.2	222.4	7.8	6.3
720	364.5	398.2	2569.3	362.2	1445	254.7	221.7	6.9	7.2
840	368.8	403.5	2565.6	363.5	1445	254.1	220.5	5.6	7.9
960	370.9	408.1	2560.2	364.1	1445	254.1	219.6	4.8	8.6
1080	372.2	411.2	2558.5	364.7	1445	254.1	218.9	3.9	9.4
1200	373.1	412.3	2556.2	365.2	1445	254.1	218.6	3.2	10.2

新增新型储能容量/万千瓦	碳排放量/百万吨	风光弃电率/%	年度投资成本 /亿元	年度运维成本 /亿元	年度可变成本 /亿元	年度环境成本 /亿元	综合年度成本 /亿元
0	226.4	16.2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.00
120	225.4	15.1	7.90	0.93	5.66	-0.87	13.62
240	224.6	12.6	15.80	1.86	11.25	-1.76	27.15
360	223.5	11.2	23.70	2.79	17.36	-2.37	41.48
480	222.9	8.9	31.60	3.72	23.44	-2.89	55.87
600	222.4	7.8	39.50	4.65	31.79	-3.12	72.82
720	221.7	6.9	47.40	5.58	37.16	-3.47	86.67
840	220.5	5.6	55.30	6.51	42.32	-4.66	99.47
960	219.6	4.8	63.20	7.44	49.67	-5.13	115.18
1080	218.9	3.9	71.10	8.37	58.52	-5.72	132.27
1200	218.6	3.2	79.00	9.32	65.23	-6.01	147.54

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新增抽蓄容量/万千瓦	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	年度投资成本 /亿元	年度运维成本 /亿元	年度可变成本 /亿元	年度环境成本 /亿元	综合年度成本 /亿元
0	226.4	16.2	0	0	0	0	0
120	225.1	14.0	4.80	1.15	7.18	-1.01	12.13
240	224.0	12.1	9.60	2.30	14.36	-1.85	24.41
360	222.9	10.2	14.40	3.46	21.54	-2.69	36.70
480	222.0	8.6	19.20	4.61	28.72	-3.39	49.14
600	221.8	7.1	24.00	5.76	35.90	-3.54	62.11
720	221.4	5.9	28.80	6.91	43.06	-3.85	74.92
840	219.6	4.8	33.60	8.06	50.03	-5.24	86.46
960	219.0	3.8	38.40	9.22	56.96	-5.70	98.88
1080	218.4	3.1	43.20	10.37	63.64	-6.16	111.05
1200	218.0	2.5	48.00	11.52	70.03	-6.47	123.08

新增抽蓄容量/万千瓦	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	年度投资成本 /亿元	年度运维成本 /亿元	年度可变成本 /亿元	年度环境成本 /亿元	综合年度成本 /亿元
0	226.4	16.2	0	0	0	0	0
120	227.2	16.2	3.54	1.60	11.32	2.58	19.04
240	228.0	16.3	7.08	3.19	21.00	6.45	37.73
360	228.7	16.4	10.62	4.79	26.64	10.65	52.70
480	229.1	16.5	14.16	6.38	42.00	14.52	77.07
600	229.4	16.8	17.70	7.98	43.20	16.78	85.66
720	229.7	16.8	21.24	9.58	46.12	20.33	97.27
840	230.1	16.5	24.78	11.17	50.96	22.27	109.18
960	230.3	16.9	28.32	12.77	59.72	24.85	125.66
1080	230.7	16.8	31.86	14.36	66.72	27.43	140.37
1200	231.0	16.4	35.40	15.96	72.04	28.72	152.12