Technical and economic research on the capacity of supply assurance for pumped-storage systems under the target of “dual carbon”

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2023.0798

Abstract

Abstract:

This study conducts a quantitative analysis on the technical and economic feasibility of pumped storage in typical provincial power grids using time-series simulations. Initially, we base our calculations on the future power planning data of a typical provincial power grid, examining the operational status of the power system for the entire years of 2025 and 2030. The results show that during certain periods of the year, the system experiences a tight power supply balance with a backup rate of less than 10%. This poses significant challenges to its adequacy and safety. Subsequently, we select two flexible regulation power sources, namely pumped storage and thermal power units, to compare and analyze the improvement of system power supply reliability and the economic quantification under the addition of these two new regulation power sources. Our findings suggest that, using the simulation results of the provincial power grid in 2030 as an example, configuring 12 million kilowatts of pumped storage and thermal power units can increase the annual standby rate of the provincial power grid system by more than 10%. This effectively addresses the issue of an insufficient system standby rate, thereby enhancing the system's supply guarantee capacity. Considering the environmental costs arising from changes in system carbon emissions, the annual comprehensive cost of improving the system's power supply level through pumped storage is lower than that of thermal power units at the same level. Additionally, it can positively influence the consumption level of new energy and reduce carbon emissions. Ultimately, we conduct a comparative analysis on the comprehensive economic benefits of pumped storage and lithium-ion battery storage in improving system power supply reliability. The results indicate that pumped storage has significant advantages in improving system power supply reliability and adequacy in terms of comprehensive economic benefits.

Key words: dual carbon target, pumped storage, timing simulation, system reserve rate, comprehensive economy, environmental costs

CLC Number:

TM 71

Tianchen ZHAO, Gong ZHANG, Yunfei ZHANG, Shihao HOU, Tingting WANG. Technical and economic research on the capacity of supply assurance for pumped-storage systems under the target of “dual carbon”[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2024, 13(3): 1059-1073.

Figures/Tables 18

Fig. 1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Table 4

Table 5

Fig. 4

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Table 9

Table 10

Table 11

References 31

1	韩肖清, 李廷钧, 张东霞, 等. 双碳目标下的新型电力系统规划新问题及关键技术[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(9): 3036-3046.
	HAN X Q, LI T J, ZHANG D X, et al. New issues and key technologies of new power system planning under double carbon goals[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(9): 3036-3046.
2	李晖, 刘栋, 姚丹阳. 面向碳达峰碳中和目标的我国电力系统发展研判[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(18): 6245-6258, 10.
	LI H, LIU D, YAO D Y. Analysis and reflection on the development of power system towards the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(18): 6245-6258, 10.
3	魏旭, 刘东, 高飞, 等. 双碳目标下考虑源网荷储协同优化运行的新型电力系统发电规划[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(9): 3648-3661.
	WEI X, LIU D, GAO F, et al. Generation expansion planning of new power system considering collaborative optimal operation of source-grid-load-storage under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(9): 3648-3661.
4	蒋光梓, 彭杨, 纪昌明, 等. 计及价格型需求响应的水风光互补短期调度[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(10): 1-12.
	JIANG G Z, PENG Y, JI C M, et al. Hydro-wind-solar power complementary short-term optimal scheduling considering participation of price-based demand response[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2023, 42(10): 1-12.
5	蔡国伟, 孔令国, 杨德友, 等. 大规模风光互补发电系统建模与运行特性研究[J]. 电网技术, 2012, 36(1): 65-71.
	CAI G W, KONG L G, YANG D Y, et al. Research on modelling and operation characteristics analysis of large-scale wind & light complementary electricity-generating system[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(1): 65-71.
6	康重庆, 姚良忠. 高比例可再生能源电力系统的关键科学问题与理论研究框架[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(9): 2-11.
	KANG C Q, YAO L Z. Key scientific issues and theoretical research framework for power systems with high proportion of renewable energy[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(9): 2-11.
7	汪宁渤, 马明, 强同波, 等. 高比例新能源电力系统的发展机遇、挑战及对策[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(1): 29-35, 50.
	WANG N B, MA M, QIANG T B, et al. High-penetration new energy power system development: Challenges, opportunities and countermeasures[J]. Electric Power, 2018, 51(1): 29-35, 50.
8	刘帅, 吴胜洋, 刘卫亮, 等.计及不确定性的风光抽蓄发电系统容量优化[J/OL]. 水力发电学报: 1-12[2023-10-30].
	LIU S, WU S Y, LIU W L, et al. Capacity optimization of wind-solar pumped storage power generation system taking into account uncertainty[J/OL]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 1-12[2023-10-30].
9	宋宇, 李涵, 楚皓翔, 等. 计及可靠性的风光互补发电系统容量优化配比研究[J]. 电气技术, 2022, 23(6): 49-58, 68.
	SONG Y, LI H, CHU H X, et al. Optimal proportion study of wind-solar hybrid generation system considering reliability[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2022, 23(6): 49-58, 68.
10	畅彩娥. 陕西电网建设抽水蓄能电站的作用与效益分析[J]. 西北水电, 2015(5): 5-7.
	CHANG C E. Analysis on functions and benefits of pumped storage power plants in Shaanxi power grid[J]. Northwest Hydropower, 2015(5): 5-7.
11	刘凯. 分布式光伏电站与抽水蓄能联合运行研究[D]. 成都: 电子科技大学, 2020.
	LIU K. Study on joint operation of distributed photovoltaic power station and pumped storage[D].Chengdu: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2020.
12	李北晨. 考虑新能源消纳的抽水蓄能服务电网能力评估及规划研究[D]. 北京: 华北电力大学, 2021.
	LI B C. Study on serving power grids and planning method for pumped-storage station considering the consumption of new energy[D]. Beijing: North China Electric Power University, 2021.
13	李守东. 大规模储能与高渗透率新能源的协调调度策略研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州交通大学, 2019.
	LI S D. Research on coordinated scheduling strategy for large-scale energy storage and high-permeability new energy[D].Lanzhou: Lanzhou Jiatong University, 2019.
14	张粒子, 许通, 宋少群, 等. 电力市场中发电容量充裕性评估方法及保障机制[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2020, 44(18): 55-63.
	ZHANG L Z, XU T, SONG S Q, et al. Evaluation method and guarantee mechanism of power generation capacity adequacy in electricity market[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2020, 44(18): 55-63.
15	刘明浩, 王丽萍, 李传刚, 等. 减少弃水电量的抽水蓄能电站运行方式研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2016, 35(12): 45-55.
	LIU M H, WANG L P, LI C G, et al. Analysis on operation of pumped storage power plants for reducing surplus water[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2016, 35(12): 45-55.
16	周建平, 杜效鹄, 周兴波. 新型电力系统中水电的作用及发展规划研究[J/OL]. 水力发电学报:1-12[2023-11-01].
	ZHOU J P, DU X H, ZHOU X B. Study on the role of hydropower in the new power system and its development planning[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 1-12[2023-11-01].
17	谭显东, 刘俊, 徐志成, 等. "双碳" 目标下"十四五" 电力供需形势[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(5): 1-6.
	TAN X D, LIU J, XU Z C, et al. Power supply and demand balance during the 14th five-year plan period under the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(5): 1-6.
18	李明节, 陈国平, 董存, 等. 新能源电力系统电力电量平衡问题研究[J]. 电网技术, 2019, 43(11): 3979-3986.
	LI M J, CHEN G P, DONG C, et al. Research on power balance of high proportion renewable energy system[J]. Power System Technology, 2019, 43(11): 3979-3986.
19	辛保安, 陈梅, 赵鹏, 等. 碳中和目标下考虑供电安全约束的我国煤电退减路径研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(19): 6919-6930.
	XIN B A, CHEN M, ZHAO P, et al. Research on coal power generation reduction path considering power supply adequacy constraints under carbon neutrality target in China[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(19): 6919-6930.
20	倪晋兵, 张云飞, 施浩波, 等. 基于时序生产模拟的抽水蓄能促进新能源消纳作用量化研究[J].电网技术, 2023, 47(7): 2799-2809.
	NI J B, ZHANG Y F, SHI H B, et al. Pumped storage quantification in promoting new energy consumption based on time series production simulation[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(7): 2799-2809.
21	庞锋, 项华伟, 吴迪, 等. 基于电力支撑的新型电力系统电力电量平衡[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(9): 88-100.
	PANG F, XIANG H W, WU D, et al. Electric power-energy balance in new-type power system based on power support[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2023, 42(9): 88-100.
22	陈典, 陆润钊, 张健, 等. 实用化水火风光系统时序电力电量平衡方法[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(5): 25-34.
	CHEN D, LU R Z, ZHANG J, et al. Sequential power and energy balance practical method for hydro-thermal-wind-solar power systems[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2023, 42(5): 25-34.
23	刘德旭, 刘艳, 潘永旗, 等. 基于可再生能源发电优先消纳的电力电量平衡模型研究[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2020, 36(1): 64-71.
	LIU D X, LIU Y, PAN Y Q, et al. Research on power balance model based on priority consumption of renewable energy power generation[J]. Power System and Clean Energy, 2020, 36(1): 64-71.
24	张云飞, 张弓, 徐三敏, 等. 抽水蓄能联合新能源替代火电参与电力电量平衡能力研究[J]. 水电与抽水蓄能, 2022, 8(6): 26-31.
	ZHANG Y F, ZHANG G, XU S M, et al. Study on the ability of pumped storage combined with new energy to replace thermal power to participate in power balance[J]. Hydropower and Pumped Storage, 2022, 8(6): 26-31.
25	纪昌明, 赵亚威, 张验科, 等. 考虑弃水电量成本的短期电力电量平衡模型[J]. 水力发电学报, 2021, 40(3): 50-63.
	JI C M, ZHAO Y W, ZHANG Y K, et al. Short-term power balance model considering cost of abandoned hydropower[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2021, 40(3): 50-63.
26	生态环境部办公厅. 2021、2022年度全国碳排放交易配额总量设定与分配实施方案[R]. 2022.
	Office of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Implementation plan for setting and allocating total national carbon emission trading allowances for the years 2021 and 2022[R]. 2022.
27	张嘉睿, 霍现旭, 李树鹏, 等. 基于全寿命周期等年值成本的蓄热式电取暖方案经济性评估[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2020, 22(3): 26-32.
	ZHANG J R, HUO X X, LI S P, et al. Economic evaluation of regenerative electric heating based on equivalent annual cost in life cycle[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2020, 22(3): 26-32.
28	国家发改委. 国家发展改革委关于抽水蓄能电站容量电价及有关事项的通知[R]. 2023.
	NDRC. Circular of the National Development and Reform Commission on capacity tariffs for pumped storage power plants and related matters[R]. 2023.
29	江天生. 天然气发电项目的经济性分析[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2004.
	JIANG T S. Economic analysis on gas generation power plants[D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2004.
30	国家发改委. 国家发展改革委关于进一步完善抽水蓄能价格形成机制的意见[R]. 2021.
	NDRC. Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission on further improving the price formation mechanism for pumped storage energy[R]. 2021.
31	BERGSTROM J, TY D. Economics of carbon capture and storage[R]. GCCSI, 2017.

年份	区内最大负荷/万千瓦	年度电量/亿千瓦时	受入电量/亿千瓦时	送出电量/亿千瓦时
2025	12430	6450	2009	0
2030	15600	7800	2269	0

年份	煤电/万千瓦	气电/万千瓦	水电/万千瓦	风电/万千瓦	光伏/万千瓦	核电/万千瓦
2025	6036	1663	701	704	3735	930
2030	6732	1963	701	1654	4735	2140

新增抽蓄容量 /万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	发电量/亿千瓦时						碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率 /%	系统备用率最低值/%
新增抽蓄容量 /万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	风电	光伏	燃煤	水电	核电	燃气	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率 /%	系统备用率最低值/%
0	0	330.6	348.6	2590.4	351.3	1445	304.2	226.4	16.2	1.9
120	3380	337.5	359.2	2589.8	354.3	1445	286.4	225.1	14.0	2.7
240	3380	343.8	368.8	2587.9	356.7	1445	273.1	224.0	12.1	3.6
360	3380	349.7	377.8	2582.6	358.8	1445	264.9	222.9	10.2	4.4
480	3380	354.9	385.6	2579.8	360.5	1445	256.9	222.0	8.6	5.3
600	3380	359.9	392.5	2573.6	361.9	1445	254.4	221.8	7.1	6.4
720	3379	364	398.5	2567.3	363.1	1445	254.1	221.4	5.9	7.1
840	3365	367.8	403.7	2560.6	364	1445	254.1	219.6	4.8	7.9
960	3352	370.9	408.1	2557.2	364.9	1445	254.1	219.0	3.8	8.7
1080	3329	373.2	411.7	2555.5	365.7	1445	254.1	218.4	3.1	9.6
1200	3297	375.3	414.5	2553.1	366.3	1445	254.1	218.0	2.5	10.4

新增火电容量/万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	发电量/亿千瓦时						碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
新增火电容量/万千瓦	抽水蓄能年利用时长/h	风电	光伏	燃煤	水电	核电	燃气	碳排放量/ 百万吨	风光弃电率/%	系统备用率最低值/%
0	—	330.6	348.6	2590.4	351.3	1445	304.2	226.4	16.2	1.9
120	—	330.5	348.4	2618.7	351.1	1445	280.4	227.2	16.2	2.7
240	—	330	347.6	2642.9	351.1	1445	261.1	228.4	16.3	3.5
360	—	330.5	346.4	2657	350.9	1445	240.9	229.7	16.4	4.3
480	—	329.7	347	2695.4	350.9	1445	223.9	230.9	16.5	5.1
600	—	329.6	344.6	2698.4	350.4	1445	209.4	231.6	16.8	5.9
720	—	329.6	344.3	2705.7	350.4	1445	194	232.7	16.8	6.7
840	—	329.7	346.6	2717.8	350.8	1445	182.9	233.3	16.5	7.6
960	—	329.4	344	2739.7	350.3	1445	169.3	234.1	16.9	8.4
1080	—	329.8	344.4	2757.2	350.3	1445	161.6	234.9	16.8	9.2
1200	—	328.1	341	2770.5	349.8	1445	153.5	235.3	16.4	10.1

技术类型	单位投资成本/(元/千瓦)	电站运营周期/年
火电调峰机组	3986	30
抽水蓄能	5500	30