沙特能源转型及氢能发展展望

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2022.0074

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在当前世界能源结构清洁化的情况下，长期依赖石油经济的沙特阿拉伯提出能源转型和经济多元化发展目标。基于此，文章对沙特能源转型动因及发展方向进行剖析，提出氢能发展构想，并对其氢能中长期开发与国际贸易的经济性进行量化分析。调研显示，在中短期内借助丰富的天然气资源优先发展蓝氢，构建产业链，后期利用丰富的清洁能源资源开发绿氢将成为沙特能源转型重要机遇。而相似国家可借鉴沙特能源结构化调整措施，实现本国的能源转型和氢能发展。

关键词: 氢能, 中东北非, 能源转型, 可再生能源, “一带一路”

Abstract:

In the context of cleaning the global energy structure, Saudi Arabia, which has long been dependent on oil, has proposed energy transition and diversification in its economic development. This paper analyzes the motivations and development direction of Saudi Arabia's energy transition and proposes the hydrogen development concept. In addition, this paper quantifies the economics of hydrogen energy development and international trade in the medium and long terms. The results demonstrate that in the short and medium terms, KSA could develop a blue hydrogen industry and construct an industrial chain with abundant natural gas resources. For the long term, the development of green hydrogen with abundant clean energy resources will become an important opportunity for Saudi Arabia's energy transition. In addition, related countries can learn from Saudi Arabia's energy restructuring measures to realize domestic energy transition and hydrogen development.

Key words: hydrogen, MENA, energy transition, renewable energy, the "Belt and Road"

中图分类号:

F 206

江涵, 徐新智, 刘哲, 张锐, 胡旭. 沙特能源转型及氢能发展展望[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2022, 11(7): 2354-2365.

Han JIANG, Xinzhi XU, Zhe LIU, Rui ZHANG, Xu HU. Energy transition and hydrogen development prospects in Saudi Arabia[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(7): 2354-2365.

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项目	单位	2020年	2050年
LCOE	美元/kWh	0.02	0.014
电解槽效率	kWh/kg	55	45
水费	美元/kg	0.01	0.01
C_VOM	美元/kg	1.11	0.64
电解槽支出	美元/千瓦	400	100
电解槽寿命	年	10	20
年满载小时数	h	3200	4200
WACC	%	10%	6%
C_inv	美元/千克	1.21	0.10
C_FOM	美元/千克	0.14	0.02
LCOH	美元/千克	2.45	0.77

国家/区域	绿氢成本/($/kg)
日本	3.8～4.1
美国	1.8～2.8
西欧	2.3～2.8
中国	1.4～2.8

运输模式	优点	缺点
管道运输	可翻新现有管道用于运输，满足大规模持续运输，中长距离运输成本较低	新建管道初始投资较高，技术成熟度不高，输送端固定，受地缘政治影响，长距离运输成本过高
液氢海运	可直接使用，纯度高，体积储氢量较高(70.8 kg/m³)	运输损耗较大，需要低温运输(-253 ℃，液化耗能占初始氢能的25%～40%)，运输存储成本较高
液氨海运	易液化(-33 ℃)，体积储氢量高(121.4 kg/m³)，氨也可直接使用，已有国际贸易情景，运输成本较低	氢氨转化能量消耗较大(耗能占初始氢能的25%～40%)，氨有毒，易造成空气污染
LOHC海运	常温常压运输，运输成本较低	载氢密度较低(体积储氢量56.6 kg/m³)，加氢脱氢转化能量消耗大(耗能占初始氢能的35%～40%)

时间	项目名称	项目装机	开发商	项目状态
第一轮(2017年)	Sakaka光伏项目	300 MW	ACWA Power	2019年11月并网
	Dumat Al Jandal 风电项目	400 MW	EDF/Masdar	2021年8月并网
第二轮(2019年)	Madinah光伏项目(A类)	50 MW	Al Blagha Holding/Al fanar Construction/Desert Technologies	建设中
	Rafha光伏项目(A类)	20 MW	Al Blagha Holding/Al fanar /Desert Technologies	建设中
	Al-Faisaliah 光伏项目(B类)	600 MW	ACWA Power/Al-Babtain/GIC	建设中
	Jeddah 光伏项目(B类)	300 MW	Masdar/EDF/Nesma	建设中
	Rabigh 光伏项目(B类)	300 MW	Marubeni/Al Jomaih	建设中
	Qurrayyat 光伏项目(B类)	200 MW	ACWA Power/Al-Babtain/GIC	建设中
	Sudair 光伏项目	1.5 GW	ACWA/Badeel (PIF)	建设中
第三轮(2020年)	Wadi Ad Dawasir光伏(A类)	120 MW		投标
	Layla光伏(A类)	80 MW		投标
	Ar Rass光伏(B类)	700 MW		投标
	Saad光伏(B类)	300 MW		投标

运载能力	48英寸			36英寸				20英寸
	新建	翻新		新建		翻新		新建		翻新
投资成本/(美元/m)	2750	500		2200		400		1510		275
压缩机间距/km	100～200
压缩机投资成本/(美元/MW)	3400000
压缩机功率/MW/1000 km)	100%	75%	25%	100%	75%		25%	100%	75%	25%
	434	183	6	93	40		2	26	6	0.6
电费/(美元/kWh)	50