储能科学与技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (12): 4048-4058.doi: 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2022.0364

• 储能技术经济性分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

“双碳”目标下氢能在我国合成氨行业的需求与减碳路径

熊亚林1,2(), 刘玮1,2, 高鹏博2(), 董斌琦1, 赵铭生2   

  1. 1.国华能源投资有限公司
    2.北京国氢中联氢能科技研究院有限公司，北京 100007
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-29 修回日期:2022-07-27 出版日期:2022-12-05 发布日期:2022-12-29
  • 通讯作者: 高鹏博 E-mail:yalin.xiong@chnenergy.com.cn;gaopengbo@h2cn.org
  • 作者简介:熊亚林（1990—），女，博士，研究方向为氢能与燃料电池技术，E-mail：yalin.xiong@chnenergy.com.cn；
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1503100);国华投资公司科技创新项目（碳中和愿景下公司氢能发展路径研究），氢能联盟研究院科技创新项目（氢能产业综合信息服务平台）

Research on the hydrogen energy demand and carbon-reduction path in China's synthetic ammonia industry to achieve the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals

Yalin XIONG1,2(), Wei LIU1,2, Pengbo GAO2(), Binqi DONG1, Mingsheng ZHAO2   

  1. 1.Guohua Energy Investment Co. , Ltd.
    2.China Hydrogen Alliance Research Institute, Ltd. , Beijing 100007, China
  • Received:2022-06-29 Revised:2022-07-27 Online:2022-12-05 Published:2022-12-29
  • Contact: Pengbo GAO E-mail:yalin.xiong@chnenergy.com.cn;gaopengbo@h2cn.org

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摘要：

氨(NH3)是现代社会中重要的化工产品之一，在农业和工业等领域均有重要的应用。当前我国合成氨过程中原料氢的生产以化石能源为主，为实现“双碳”目标，有效缓解高碳排放问题，电解水制氢等绿色合成氨技术与氨的清洁利用技术成为重要的突破口。本文对我国合成氨现状以及未来趋势进行研究，并基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型，结合经济性驱动，以氢气价格和政策为主要驱动因素，考虑不同原料合成氨的替代，模拟我国合成氨行业2020—2060年的氢需求及碳排放趋势。结果表明，2060年，我国合成氨需求量将达1.2亿吨，氢气需求量达2128万吨，新增需求主要来源于船舶氨燃料、氨发电等新领域，超过合成氨的氢需求量的50%。我国合成氨行业由化石能源向可再生能源转换有着巨大的潜力，随着可再生能源制氢成本的降低，可再生能源制氢合成氨占比将会大幅度上升，超过97%。在碳排放方面，我国合成氨工业将在2030年达峰，峰值为2.2亿吨，2060年合成氨工业碳排放920万吨。为实现碳中和目标，我国应在可再生能源丰富的地区优先开展电解水制氢合成氨示范项目，加大力度开展电解制氢以及温和条件合成氨关键技术及应用，尽早实现低碳合成氨技术大规模应用，在氨应用方面，加大氨燃料发动机和掺氨发电的研究。

关键词: LEAP模型, 合成氨, 氢能, 碳排放, 绿氨

Abstract:

Ammonia (NH3) is one of the most important chemical products in modern society, which has important applications in many fields, such as agriculture and industry. However, since, at present, the production of raw hydrogen in the process of ammonia synthesis in China is mainly based on fossil energy, achieving the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" to effectively alleviate the problems of high carbon emission, electrolysis of water for hydrogen production, and clean ammonia utilization technologies are important breakthroughs. Therefore, this paper understudied the current situation and future trends in China's synthetic ammonia sector, after which we simulated the trend of hydrogen consumption and carbon emission in China's synthetic ammonia industry from 2020 to 2060 based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model combined with economic drivers, taking hydrogen price and policy as the main driving factors and considering the substitution of synthetic ammonia with different raw materials. The results showed that in 2060, China's hydrogen demand for synthetic ammonia could reach 21.28 million tons, with the demand mainly coming from new fields like shipping ammonia fuels and coal-fired ammonia blending, which exceeded 50% of the hydrogen demand for synthetic ammonia. Hence, there is great potential for China's synthetic ammonia industry to convert from fossil energy to renewable energy. With a reduction in the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy, we also observed that the proportion of synthetic ammonia produced from renewable energy increased significantly and may reach more than 97% in the future. Besides, in terms of carbon emission, while China's synthetic ammonia industry could reach a peak around 2025, with a peak of 221.8 million tons, the carbon emission of the synthetic ammonia industry would be about 9.2 million tons in 2060. Thus, to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization, China should give priority to the demonstration project of hydrogen production from electrolytic water and ammonia synthesis in areas rich in renewable energy, thereby strengthening key technologies and applications of electrolytic hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis under mild conditions, realizing the large-scale application of low-carbon ammonia synthesis technology as soon as possible, and increasing research on ammonia fuel engines and ammonia-doped power generation in ammonia application.

Key words: leap model, synthetic ammonia, hydrogen energy, carbon emission, green ammonia

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