Research on the hydrogen energy demand and carbon-reduction path in China's synthetic ammonia industry to achieve the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2022.0364

Abstract

Abstract:

Ammonia (NH₃) is one of the most important chemical products in modern society, which has important applications in many fields, such as agriculture and industry. However, since, at present, the production of raw hydrogen in the process of ammonia synthesis in China is mainly based on fossil energy, achieving the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" to effectively alleviate the problems of high carbon emission, electrolysis of water for hydrogen production, and clean ammonia utilization technologies are important breakthroughs. Therefore, this paper understudied the current situation and future trends in China's synthetic ammonia sector, after which we simulated the trend of hydrogen consumption and carbon emission in China's synthetic ammonia industry from 2020 to 2060 based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model combined with economic drivers, taking hydrogen price and policy as the main driving factors and considering the substitution of synthetic ammonia with different raw materials. The results showed that in 2060, China's hydrogen demand for synthetic ammonia could reach 21.28 million tons, with the demand mainly coming from new fields like shipping ammonia fuels and coal-fired ammonia blending, which exceeded 50% of the hydrogen demand for synthetic ammonia. Hence, there is great potential for China's synthetic ammonia industry to convert from fossil energy to renewable energy. With a reduction in the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy, we also observed that the proportion of synthetic ammonia produced from renewable energy increased significantly and may reach more than 97% in the future. Besides, in terms of carbon emission, while China's synthetic ammonia industry could reach a peak around 2025, with a peak of 221.8 million tons, the carbon emission of the synthetic ammonia industry would be about 9.2 million tons in 2060. Thus, to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization, China should give priority to the demonstration project of hydrogen production from electrolytic water and ammonia synthesis in areas rich in renewable energy, thereby strengthening key technologies and applications of electrolytic hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis under mild conditions, realizing the large-scale application of low-carbon ammonia synthesis technology as soon as possible, and increasing research on ammonia fuel engines and ammonia-doped power generation in ammonia application.

Key words: leap model, synthetic ammonia, hydrogen energy, carbon emission, green ammonia

CLC Number:

TK 91

Yalin XIONG, Wei LIU, Pengbo GAO, Binqi DONG, Mingsheng ZHAO. Research on the hydrogen energy demand and carbon-reduction path in China's synthetic ammonia industry to achieve the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(12): 4048-4058.

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发动机类型	额定功率/kW	油耗/(g/kWh)
主机	51000	166.6
辅机	3000	185

合成方法	原料	每吨氨所需能源量
煤制合成氨	原料煤	1.3 t
煤制合成氨	动力煤	0.5 t
天然气制氨	天然气	850～900 m³(本文选取885 m³)
电解水制氢合成氨	氢气	0.178 t

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