Topic identification， evolution， and risk analysis of electrochemical energy storage battery technology

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2023.0188

Abstract

Abstract:

The research and development (R&D) of electrochemical energy storage battery technology has attracted worldwide attention as a promising energy storage solution. However, a comprehensive and scientific analysis of its key technology topics, future R&D trends, and risk levels has been lacking owing to the complexity and extensiveness of this field. This study aims to bridge this gap using patent data to macroscopically analyze the application characteristics, identify technical topics using the latent Dirichlet allocation topic model, analyze topic evolution based on the post-discrete method, and assess the technology development risks using the Bayesian network model. The results show that there are 15 distinct technical topics within the field of electrochemical energy storage battery technology. The evolution trend of these topics is divided into ascending, stationary, and declining types. Analyzing patent quantities, industrial chains, and battery types, the global R&D efforts in this field show a continuous growth trend. Raw material-related technologies upstream of the electrochemical energy storage battery industry chain are the key field of R&D, although saturation or bottlenecks may be encountered. Meanwhile, processing-related technologies in the midstream field are gradually becoming a hot R&D direction. Furthermore, considering the industrial chain perspective, the assessment of technological development risks in the midstream processing field indicates a medium-level risk. Key risk factors include monopolizing key technologies, rising prices of upstream raw materials, lagging industry standards, and insufficient cooperation within the industrial chain. This study provides a useful reference for developing planning and R&D decision-making processes in electrochemical energy storage battery technology.

Key words: electrochemical energy storage, LDA model, technology topic identification, technology topic evolution, risk analysis

CLC Number:

G 255.53

Libo ZHANG, Gege WANG. Topic identification， evolution， and risk analysis of electrochemical energy storage battery technology[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(8): 2680-2692.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Table 1

Table 2

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

Fig. 11

Fig. 12

Table 3

References 28

1	The International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable energy statistics 2022[R]. Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2022.
2	Ember, Global electricity review 2022[R]. London: EMBER, 2022.
3	DALALA Z, AL-OMARI M, AL-ADDOUS M, et al. Increased renewable energy penetration in national electrical grids constraints and solutions[J]. Energy, 2022, 246: doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123361.
4	ZHANG Z Y, DING T, ZHOU Q, et al. A review of technologies and applications on versatile energy storage systems[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021, 148: doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111263.
5	ALBAWAB M, GHENAI C, BETTAYEB M, et al. Sustainability performance index for ranking energy storage technologies using multi-criteria decision-making model and hybrid computational method[J]. Journal of Energy Storage, 2020, 32: doi: 10.1016/j.est.2020.101820.
6	张子岩, 张俊艳. 基于高质量专利的储能关键技术国际竞争态势[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2022, 11(1): 321-334.
	ZHANG Z Y, ZHANG J Y. International competition of key energy storage technologies based on high-quality patents[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(1): 321-334.
7	中国化学与物理电源行业协会储能应用分会. 2022储能产业应用研究报告[R]. 北京: 中国化学与物理电源行业协会储能应用分会, 2022.China Industrial Association of Power Sources. Research report on industry of stored energy in 2022[R]. Beijing: CIAPS, 2022.
8	朱晟, 彭怡婷, 闵宇霖, 等. 电化学储能材料及储能技术研究进展[J]. 化工进展, 2021, 40(9): 4837-4852.
	ZHU S, PENG Y T, MIN Y L, et al. Research progress on materials and technologies for electrochemical energy storage[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(9): 4837-4852.energy storage[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(9): 4837-4852.
9	张文建, 崔青汝, 李志强, 等. 电化学储能在发电侧的应用[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2020, 9(1): 287-295.
	ZHANG W J, CUI Q R, LI Z Q, et al. Application of electrochemical energy storage in power generation[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2020, 9(1): 287-295.
10	孟祥飞, 庞秀岚, 崇锋, 等. 电化学储能在电网中的应用分析及展望[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2019, 8(S1): 38-42.
	MENG X F, PANG X L, CHONG F, et al. Application analysis and prospect of electrochemical energy storage in power grid[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2019, 8(S1): 38-42.
11	LAKHNOT A S, BHIMANI K, MAHAJANI V, et al. Reversible and rapid calcium intercalation into molybdenum vanadium oxides[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022, 119(30): doi: 10.1073/pnas.2205762119.
12	LI S M, CHEN Z F, ZHANG W T, et al. High-throughput screening of protective layers to stabilize the electrolyte-anode interface in solid-state Li-metal batteries[J]. Nano Energy, 2022, 102: doi:10.1016/j.nanoen.2022.107640.
13	SHAN X F, WU J, ZHANG X T, et al. Wood for application in electrochemical energy storage devices[J]. Cell Reports Physical Science, 2021, 2(12): doi: 10.1016/j.xcrp.2021.100654.
14	KRISHNAMURTI V, YANG B, MURALI A, et al. Aqueous organic flow batteries for sustainable energy storage[J]. Current Opinion in Electrochemistry, 2022, 35: doi: 10.1016/j.coelec.2022.101100.
15	DOU H R, CLERC P. Trends in 3-D printing from a patent information analysis (APA)[J]. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2015, 10(3/4): doi: 10.1504/ijtip.2015.070854.
16	MÜLLER S, SANDNER P, WELPE I. Monitoring innovation in electrochemical energy storage technologies: A patent-based approach[J]. Energy Procedia, 2014, 61: 2293-2296.
17	BLOCK A, SONG C H. Exploring the characteristics of technological knowledge interaction dynamics in the field of solid-state batteries: A patent-based approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 353: doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131689.
18	CHOI H, WOO J. Investigating emerging hydrogen technology topics and comparing national level technological focus: Patent analysis using a structural topic model[J]. Applied Energy, 2022, 313: doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118898.
19	BLEI D M, NG A Y, JORDAN M I. Latent dirichlet allocation[J]. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2003, 3: 993-1022.
20	MA S C, XU J H, FAN Y. Characteristics and key trends of global electric vehicle technology development: A multi-method patent analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 338: doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130502.
21	ZHANG H, DAIM T, ZHANG Y Q. Integrating patent analysis into technology roadmapping: A latent dirichlet allocation based technology assessment and roadmapping in the field of blockchain[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, 167: doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120729.
22	AKHAVAN M, SEBT M V, AMELI M. Risk assessment modeling for knowledge based and startup projects based on feasibility studies: A Bayesian network approach[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2021, 222: doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2021.106992.
23	CARLESS T S, REDUS K, DRYDEN R. Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks[J]. Energy Policy, 2021, 159: doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112549.
24	HOFFMAN M, BACH F R, BLEI D M. Online learning for latent Dirichlet allocation[C]// Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23: Curran Associates, 2010: 856-864.
25	郭丕斌, 施涛, 吴青龙. 基于R语言主题模型的光伏产业创新政策层级性特征分析[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2021, 38(2): 128-136.
	GUO P B, SHI T, WU Q L. Quantitative analysis of the hierarchical characteristics of photovoltaic industry innovation policy based on R language theme model[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2021, 38(2): 128-136.
26	KUMAR M, NG J. Using text mining and topic modelling to understand success and growth factors in Global Renewable Energy Projects[J]. Renewable Energy Focus, 2022, 42: 211-220.
27	GRIFFITHS T L, STEYVERS M. Finding scientific topics[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004, 101(suppl_1): 5228-5235.
28	SUN L J, YIN Y F. Discovering themes and trends in transportation research using topic modeling[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017, 77: 49-66.

分类	主题号	主题名称	含专利数量排名
产业链上游电池原材料	Topic12	电极复合材料	2
	Topic7	电极活性物质材料	3
	Topic8	正负电极制备方法	4
	Topic11	电解液及其制备	5
	Topic13	电池隔膜及其制备	7
	Topic14	导电剂、黏结剂及其制备	15
产业链中游电池加工	Topic5	电池生产制造相关装置及设备	1
	Topic4	电池充放电相关技术及工艺	6
	Topic9	电池干燥方法	9
	Topic2	电池结构零件设计及制造	11
	Topic10	电池封装	14
产业链下游应用和回收	Topic6	电池组性能优化及应用	8
产业链下游应用和回收	Topic15	铅酸电池及其回收处理	12
特定类型电池	Topic3	氧化还原液流电池及其组件	10
	Topic15	铅酸电池及其回收处理	12
	Topic1	金属-空气电池技术	13

上升型( μ_k >1.1)		平稳型(0.9≤ μ_k ≤1.1)		衰退型( μ_k <0.9)
主题名称	μ_k	主题名称	μ_k	主题名称	μ_k
电池生产制造相关装置及设备	2.372	电池充放电相关技术及工艺	1.070	电池结构零件设计及制造	0.879
电池封装	1.407	电极复合材料	1.050	电解液及其制备	0.869
电池干燥方法	1.393	铅酸电池及其回收处理	1.019	电池隔膜及其制备	0.851
电池组性能优化及应用	1.149	正负电极制备方法	0.936	金属-空气电池技术	0.735
		氧化还原液流电池及其组件	0.929	电极活性物质材料	0.564
		导电剂、黏结剂及其制备	0.902

风险类型	风险因子	互信息值
技术风险	技术革新速度与需求不匹配	0.01460
	自动化水平低	0.00516
	关键技术垄断	0.02109
	存在安全隐患	0.00816
经济风险	商业模式不成熟	0.00751
	规模化程度低	0.01812
	上游原材料价格上涨	0.06437
政策风险	政策支持不足	0.00370
	行业标准滞后	0.02852
	监管评估机构缺失	0.02028
环境风险	产业链协作不充分	0.09684
	发生重大事故	0.00257
	国际间进出口壁垒	0.01236

[1]	Guangjin ZHAO, Bowen LI, Yuxia HU, Ruifeng DONG, Fangfang WANG. Overview of the echelon utilization technology and engineering application of retired power batteries [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(7): 2319-2332.
[2]	Zhixiang CHENG, Wei CAO, Bo HU, Yunfang CHENG, Xin LI, Lihua JIANG, Kaiqiang JIN, Qingsong WANG. Thermal runaway and explosion propagation characteristics of large lithium iron phosphate battery for energy storage station [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(3): 923-933.
[3]	Yang LIU, Weijun TENG, Qingfa GU, Xin SUN, Yuliang TAN, Zhijin FANG, Jianlin LI. Scaled-up diversified electrochemical energy storage LCOE and its economic analysis [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(1): 312-318.
[4]	Hong LI, Qiang ZHANG. A review of energy storage science and technology projects supported by national key R&D program [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(9): 2691-2701.
[5]	Zhicheng CAO, Kaiyun ZHOU, Jiali ZHU, Gaoming LIU, Min YAN, Shun TANG, Yuancheng CAO, Shijie CHENG, Weixin ZHANG. Patent analysis of fire-protection technology of lithium-ion energy storage system [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(8): 2664-2670.
[6]	Nan LIN, Ulrike KREWER, Jochen ZAUSCH, Konrad STEINER, Haibo LIN, Shouhua FENG. Development and application of multiphysics models for electrochemical energy storage and conversion systems [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(4): 1149-1164.
[7]	Zhiwei ZHAO, Zhi YANG, Zhangquan PENG. Application of time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry in lithium-based rechargeable batteries [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(3): 781-794.
[8]	Siqi SHI, Zhangwei TU, Xinxin ZOU, Shiyu SUN, Zhengwei YANG, Yue LIU. Applying data-driven machine learning to studying electrochemical energy storage materials [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(3): 739-759.
[9]	Mengyao QI, Yichen HOU, Lei CHEN, Lijun YANG. Numerical simulation of a novel radial all-vanadium flow battery cell [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(10): 3209-3220.
[10]	Yun TANG, Fang YUE, Kaimo GUO, Lanchun LI, Wei CHEN. International development trend analysis of next-generation electrochemical energy storage technology [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2022, 11(1): 89-97.
[11]	Zhaoxia YANG, Jingyuan LOU, Xuejing LI, Hanwen WANG, Kezhong WANG, Dongjiang YOU. Status and development of the zinc-nickel single flow battery [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2020, 9(6): 1678-1690.
[12]	Zheyi PEI, Gaofeng FAN, Xiaohui QIN. Demand analysis of large scale energy storage in China’s power system [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2020, 9(5): 1562-1565.
[13]	LIU Qinghua, ZHANG Sai, JIANG Mingzhe, WANG Qiushi, XING Xueqi, YANG Hong, HUANG Feng, LEMMON P John, MIAO Ping. Study on the low-cost flow battery technologies for energy storage [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2019, 8(S1): 60-64.
[14]	MENG Xiangfei, PANG Xiulan, CHONG Feng, HOU Shaopan, QI Bin. Application analysis and prospect of electrochemical energy storage in power grid [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2019, 8(S1): 38-42.
[15]	WU Shanjin, CUI Chenggang, YANG Ning, CHEN Hui. Analysis of economic benefits and risks of energy storage project under financial leasing model [J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2018, 7(6): 1217-1225.